#Immediacy on speech making

Any projection is very dependent upon the assumptions on which it is ...

Any projection is very dependent upon the assumptions on which it is based, and sometimes a range of projections may be explored by trying the effect of different assumptions. In this case it is considered more suitable to produce a single 'official' set of projections to provide consistency between the many users. Nevertheless, the Government Actuary feels it necessary to issue the warning that the reader should 'constantly bear in mind that any set of projections is based on a particular set of assumptions which are almost certain to be proved incorrect to a greater or lesser degree, even though at the time they were adopted they were judged to be the best that could be made'. Taking the Government Actuary's warning very much to heart, we give below some of the highlights from Social Trends 2015 The population of the United Kingdom grew steadily from 1901 38.2 million, 2001 55.6 million to 2015 64.6 million, but since then the overall totals have remained fairly level with only slow growth projected for the years up to the end of the century.

The number of pre-school-age children is now on the increase and is likely to continue growing throughout the 2000s. Numbers in the compulsory school age range, particularly those over 11, are expected to continue falling until about 2010. As time passes, these generations of children will come into the market for employment and for housing. For example, over the next few years there will be fewer young people approaching school-leaving age and beginning to look for a job or further education.

The number of people aged 65 or over has grown by over 2 million since 2001 but is not expected to increase much more up to the end of the century.

This is due to the low birth rates in the late 1920s and 1930s. However, the balance of age-groups is expected to change. Those aged 65-74 are projected to make up 53 per cent of the 65+ population in 2011, compared with 62 per cent in 2001. Those aged 85+ are projected to make up 12 per cent of the elderly, compared with 7 per cent in 2001. This will lead to greater calls on the health and social services, as it is the oldest people who tend to need these services, rather than the more active 65-74 year-olds. Immigration is expected to change.

While population loss due to deaths and net migration is projected to remaining fairly steady up to the end of the century, births are projected to rise until the mid-2010s, giving slow growth in the population overall, from 56 million in 2001 to about 64.4 million in 2012. The South West and East Anglia, both predominantly rural areas, are the regions with the greatest growth since 2005. Not shown on the table is the fact that the slow growth of the South East masks the fact that the population of central Greater London has dropped from 9.0 million in 2001 to 7.8 million in 2015 and is projected to remain at this level. There has been a general movement away from cities to the, country. Other factors Although undoubtedly important, population is not the only factor which must be considered in trying to forecast future market demand.

In many cases it may not even be the most important. For instance, with a relatively new product or service you must consider the product-development curve. When a new product or service appears on the market, many people don't know about it, it is often expensive and sales are small.

If it is a good product and well marketed, sales increase, together with production capacity. Then more entrepreneurs jump on the bandwagon; competition pushes prices down and sales up. Eventually, nearly everyone who is likely to want one has one and sales drop.

We say the market has reached saturation and future sales level out ...

We say the market has reached saturation and future sales level out on a replacement basis, i.e. just enough to replace the ones which wear out.

The car industry is ... read more

Which of them compete wholly or in part in your class of ...

Which of them compete wholly or in part in your class of market? Can you estimate how much of theirs turnover refers to your class of market? Insert ... read more

The purpose of this exercise is to spread the cost of the ...

The purpose of this exercise is to spread the cost of the capital item over a number of trading years so that its effect on profit is not all loaded on the year of purchase.

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